Intro
This is my first conversation with Evan Burns, CEO of State Affairs. I think Evan is building one of the most interesting companies at the intersection of politics and capitalism, with the ambitious goal of creating the category of “policy markets” which he says is more important than financial markets. In this conversation we discuss the state of media, the thesis and business of State Affairs and more.
Keith Rabois was one of the first believers in the idea and they just came out of stealth with a $70m seed round funded by Khosla Ventures and Founders Fund.
To understand how Evan got here, perhaps sharing some of his background is important. He started a media company called Odyssey which he ran for eight years before eventually exiting and went on to start a beverage company called The Long Drink that was wildly successful in a short period of time doing 500 million in sales. Through that he learnt how important it was for companies to understand policy in real time and have relationships with policymakers.
One of the best things about doing the show is meeting people that lay low and are underrated in the mainstream discourse. I think Evan is one of those people who is going to build a generational company and will be household name in the next five years or so.
Watch on YouTube
Timestamps
00:00 - Intro
01:59 - Finding Business Alpha Outside Major Media Hubs
03:25 - The Origins of the Finnish Long Drink
10:44 - Launching a Drink in the US and Lessons in Policy Navigation
18:33 - Reclaiming Truth and Objectivity in Modern News Media
21:27 - The Stagnation and Future of Education Policy
24:44 - Unpacking the Negative Incentive Structures in Politics
26:59 - What Are Policy Markets? The Core Thesis of State Affairs
30:50 - Building a Real-Time Knowledge Graph for Western Democracy
33:01 - Business Model
37:32 - Practical AI and Data Use Cases for Public Servants and Corporations
41:49 - The Strategic Impact of Events Like the Hill & Valley Forum
45:13 - Moats of a Monopoly Business
47:43 - Why Objective Journalism Is Mathematically More Valuable Than Ever
55:29 - Why Startups Must Win America Before Going International
58:05 - Building Deeper Ontologies and Flywheels Over Time
01:02:22 - Using AI Models to Settle a Moon Landing Debate
01:07:05 - Evan’s Take on MBAs in the Startup Ecosystem
01:08:24 - Overcoming Early VC Skepticism
01:10:51 - Closing
